The IPCRI meeting I attended focused on Russian involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and Russia's personal motivations and relationship with Iran. Two representatives from Russia were included in the panel of 5 speakers (Svetlarina Zybova and Alexey Stosyrov).
There has been talk of a possible conference to be held in Moscow (being referred to as the Moscow Conference) where Russia will offer its assistance in the Israeli Palestinian peace process. A conference in Moscow is interesting for many reasons, but notably because 20% of Israeli citizens in the past 2 decades have come from Russia and the grand majority harshly oppose the creation of the Palestinian state. However, there is speculation on whether or not this will take place as there has been little organization around the details of such a conference, though Russia is showing a willingness to participate in this manner.
Svetlarina Zybova, one of the Russian representatives, summarized Russia's overall policy:
Russia's leaders feel that Russia is taking a frontal role in foreign policy and is open to working with the international community on multiple levels. The majority of the international community is leaning towards diplomacy. With the balance of power shifting, the U.S. cannot handle everything independently and Russia wants to participate in reconciliation between East and West. Russia thinks they can mediate between Muslim civilizations and the West. They want to build a Palestinian State and have both Israel and Palestine existing side by side (the two state solution). We (Russia and the international community) need to find ways to push progress forward and this process can be initiated by the Russian Conference. As for the Middle East peace process in general she summarized five objectives:
1. There should be a two state solution leading to creation of an independent and secure
Palestinian state
2. Full compliance of the Israelis and the Palestinians should be ensured with an agreement to halt violence and maintain the resulting political structure
3. There must be reinforcement of Palestinian national institutions
4. Reconstruction of the Gaza Strip must commence (and they would like help from Egypt and Europe in this department)
5. There must be Palestinian dialogue with the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) and Israel in order to create and sustain a Palestinian nation
Overall, Zybova stresses that Russia wants to be an equal partner in the conflict resolution process.
Galia Golan, who amongst other things is an activist and professor in the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel, responded by discussing Russia's major interests in the region:
1. One motivation is political: Russia wants to elevate their status in the international community and redeem themselves as the large influential entity they once were.
2. Russia's primary interest, however, is economic and this takes priority over political motivations. Russia wants to make money; especially with regard to oil and specifically with regards to Iran. Additionally, they already deal in large importations of natural gas between themselves and Iran and are seeking a similar agreement to OPEC (but with respect to natural gas). Furthermore, there is a mutual interest/cooperation with the Caspian Sea between Russia and Iran.
There is also the Islamic issue; that Russia (who has a significant Muslim population itself) has sought legitimacy from the Muslim state of Iran. This touches into the matter of the extension of Islam and fundamentalism.
Russia's relationship with Iran is a symbol of Russian independence and an independent foreign policy in opposition to the US. When Golan says "opposing the US," she doesn't necessarily mean to be against the US, but to show independence from them.
There is also the issue of Iran developing a nuclear weapons program. Such a program is economically beneficial and strengthens independence for Iran. The program, she doesn't think, is directed at Israel, and there may not be an existential threat, but there are benefits for Iran in having the program nonetheless. While Russia does not want to see a nuclear weapons program in Iran it is important for Russia, in general, to maintain a positive presence in Iran, so Russia will not do anything to tamper with their good relations (including discouraging a nuclear weapons program). If restrictions were somehow agreed upon within the Iranian nuclear program, she thinks Russia would accept it.
These are all factors behind Russia's refusal to give full support the issue of sanctions against Iran. Although the Russian representatives say that while sanctions have been successful before, here they feel they are counterproductive in dealing with both the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and with Iran. They think this form of action will only make leaders stronger where such sanctions are imposed. Russia is not interested in helping Iran get nuclear weapons, nor do they think they are developing a nuclear program (or so they claim).
There is talk of a trade off between Russia and the US with regard to Russian interests with Georgia and Ukraine, but very little has come of this so far.
The Russian position with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict is that they want to be viewed as an important player, but do not really want to get that involved, they just want to be seen as a significant partner. Russia has maintained a balanced policy with regard to the conflict and has gone out of its way to do so. Golan tends to think Russia's relationship with Hamas is connected with Iran. Hamas historically showed a very negative policy towards Russia, but eventually changed and has become more positive in dealing with Russia. In return, Russia has reciprocated, taking them off their list of terrorist organizations. She thinks this was a result of Iranian pressure on Hamas.
Gershon Baskin (the director and founder of IPCRI) pointed out that recently, Obama brought a possible offer to the table in hopes of negotiation. If Russia helps insure that Iran isn't building a weapons program then the US will get rid of the missiles in Eastern Europe (as there is no need for them). The main issue for the US is really if Russia will comply with imposing stronger sanctions on Iran (if they'll provide outside pressure). The missiles aren't a direct need to the US so it’s a creative bargaining tool.
Russia's claim of “bilateral negotiations, the sooner the better,” was also criticized as being empty rhetoric used only to give the illusion that they want to get involved. Frequently nothing comes of these negations, but more violence. In response to this, Russia commented that the final stages to the resolution of issues in the conflict are difficult with regards to negotiating with Israel. To get past this we need to find common ground and if the peace process fails, it will do more damage than if it doesn't take place at all. In other words as Golan said previously, it sounds like Russia wants to rebuild its image, but has no real interest in being a key player in the resolution of the Israeli Palestinian Conflict.
There has been talk of a possible conference to be held in Moscow (being referred to as the Moscow Conference) where Russia will offer its assistance in the Israeli Palestinian peace process. A conference in Moscow is interesting for many reasons, but notably because 20% of Israeli citizens in the past 2 decades have come from Russia and the grand majority harshly oppose the creation of the Palestinian state. However, there is speculation on whether or not this will take place as there has been little organization around the details of such a conference, though Russia is showing a willingness to participate in this manner.
Svetlarina Zybova, one of the Russian representatives, summarized Russia's overall policy:
Russia's leaders feel that Russia is taking a frontal role in foreign policy and is open to working with the international community on multiple levels. The majority of the international community is leaning towards diplomacy. With the balance of power shifting, the U.S. cannot handle everything independently and Russia wants to participate in reconciliation between East and West. Russia thinks they can mediate between Muslim civilizations and the West. They want to build a Palestinian State and have both Israel and Palestine existing side by side (the two state solution). We (Russia and the international community) need to find ways to push progress forward and this process can be initiated by the Russian Conference. As for the Middle East peace process in general she summarized five objectives:
1. There should be a two state solution leading to creation of an independent and secure
Palestinian state
2. Full compliance of the Israelis and the Palestinians should be ensured with an agreement to halt violence and maintain the resulting political structure
3. There must be reinforcement of Palestinian national institutions
4. Reconstruction of the Gaza Strip must commence (and they would like help from Egypt and Europe in this department)
5. There must be Palestinian dialogue with the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) and Israel in order to create and sustain a Palestinian nation
Overall, Zybova stresses that Russia wants to be an equal partner in the conflict resolution process.
Galia Golan, who amongst other things is an activist and professor in the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy in Herzliya, Israel, responded by discussing Russia's major interests in the region:
1. One motivation is political: Russia wants to elevate their status in the international community and redeem themselves as the large influential entity they once were.
2. Russia's primary interest, however, is economic and this takes priority over political motivations. Russia wants to make money; especially with regard to oil and specifically with regards to Iran. Additionally, they already deal in large importations of natural gas between themselves and Iran and are seeking a similar agreement to OPEC (but with respect to natural gas). Furthermore, there is a mutual interest/cooperation with the Caspian Sea between Russia and Iran.
There is also the Islamic issue; that Russia (who has a significant Muslim population itself) has sought legitimacy from the Muslim state of Iran. This touches into the matter of the extension of Islam and fundamentalism.
Russia's relationship with Iran is a symbol of Russian independence and an independent foreign policy in opposition to the US. When Golan says "opposing the US," she doesn't necessarily mean to be against the US, but to show independence from them.
There is also the issue of Iran developing a nuclear weapons program. Such a program is economically beneficial and strengthens independence for Iran. The program, she doesn't think, is directed at Israel, and there may not be an existential threat, but there are benefits for Iran in having the program nonetheless. While Russia does not want to see a nuclear weapons program in Iran it is important for Russia, in general, to maintain a positive presence in Iran, so Russia will not do anything to tamper with their good relations (including discouraging a nuclear weapons program). If restrictions were somehow agreed upon within the Iranian nuclear program, she thinks Russia would accept it.
These are all factors behind Russia's refusal to give full support the issue of sanctions against Iran. Although the Russian representatives say that while sanctions have been successful before, here they feel they are counterproductive in dealing with both the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and with Iran. They think this form of action will only make leaders stronger where such sanctions are imposed. Russia is not interested in helping Iran get nuclear weapons, nor do they think they are developing a nuclear program (or so they claim).
There is talk of a trade off between Russia and the US with regard to Russian interests with Georgia and Ukraine, but very little has come of this so far.
The Russian position with regard to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict is that they want to be viewed as an important player, but do not really want to get that involved, they just want to be seen as a significant partner. Russia has maintained a balanced policy with regard to the conflict and has gone out of its way to do so. Golan tends to think Russia's relationship with Hamas is connected with Iran. Hamas historically showed a very negative policy towards Russia, but eventually changed and has become more positive in dealing with Russia. In return, Russia has reciprocated, taking them off their list of terrorist organizations. She thinks this was a result of Iranian pressure on Hamas.
Gershon Baskin (the director and founder of IPCRI) pointed out that recently, Obama brought a possible offer to the table in hopes of negotiation. If Russia helps insure that Iran isn't building a weapons program then the US will get rid of the missiles in Eastern Europe (as there is no need for them). The main issue for the US is really if Russia will comply with imposing stronger sanctions on Iran (if they'll provide outside pressure). The missiles aren't a direct need to the US so it’s a creative bargaining tool.
Russia's claim of “bilateral negotiations, the sooner the better,” was also criticized as being empty rhetoric used only to give the illusion that they want to get involved. Frequently nothing comes of these negations, but more violence. In response to this, Russia commented that the final stages to the resolution of issues in the conflict are difficult with regards to negotiating with Israel. To get past this we need to find common ground and if the peace process fails, it will do more damage than if it doesn't take place at all. In other words as Golan said previously, it sounds like Russia wants to rebuild its image, but has no real interest in being a key player in the resolution of the Israeli Palestinian Conflict.
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